How to find product-market fit

Thanks, Jeff. I'm I'm really happy to be here. I'm actually very impressed with how full the room is given it's right after Burning Man. Did did anyone go this year? Oh, not too many attendees. Alright. We got one over there. Okay.

So so just by quick way introduction, a little bit by myself. If you haven't heard of Weebly, Weebly is an easy way for entrepreneurs to build a website or an online store. Before Weebly got started, the only way to do that was to learn to code yourself and now there are plenty of tools and services to allow you to drag and drop and build a site.

I wrote the first line of code in February 2016, so a little over twelve years ago now. Grew the company to 50,000,000 users and around 350 employees. Sold to Square in May of this year for 365,000,000. And probably one of my favorite stats is that half of The US population visits a Weebly site every single month.

The reason it's my favorite is it's because it's reflective of the success of the entrepreneurs. People building the websites themselves and actually having success and seeing those results. So I'm here to talk to you today about how to find product market fit. It's a, you know, the top problem that anyone deals with.

I'm gonna try to keep it fairly practical, not theoretical, because I think finding product market fit is really about the the practical nitty gritty, the hustle. So I I I wanna just preview real quick, talk to you a little bit about our journey. Like I said, I wrote the first line of code a little over twelve years ago, which which sounds really weird that it's been that long.

This is what it looked like. This is a photo I took from February 2006. It's where I was at Beaver Stadium at Penn State when I wrote the first line of code. Just kinda gives you the setting, but but in college. In February, so this has been six months, we oh, I should introduce this graph. So this is a graph of the new users per day signing up for Weebly.

So non cumulative, just whenever someone signs up, you know, you get a one. And this is six months in. So we still hadn't launched six months in. We're Dan, Chris, and I were all doing internships that summer. You can see here our our massive record sign up day was twelve users. I think we just create accounts for friends and family. So six months in, we still hadn't launched. Right?

Just to give you an idea of how long it takes. We worked for six months and hadn't launched. In February, this is eight months later, still hadn't launched. We were hustling for buzz on forums. We had created a sign up link. You can see here now we had 30 some users that signed up on our record day. But eight months in and still hadn't launched. In February, I read about Y Combinator on Slashdot.

The deadline was about three hours to go. So I think it was about 1AM eastern when I read it. The deadline for application was midnight Pacific, so I had about two hours to go to create a to create a YC application. I didn't have time to call up Dan and Chris, my cofounders, and ask them if they wanna drop out of school with me and move to San Francisco. So I took a guess.

My guess was that Chris was gonna drop out of school and Dan wasn't going to. I called Chris up first the next morning and said, hey, Chris. You wanna drop out of school with me and move to San Francisco? And just on the spot, he's like, hell yeah. Let's do it. I called up Dan. Said, Dan, you wanna drop out of school with me and move to San Francisco? He said, you know what?

This sounds like a really promising idea. Let me call my parents. I'll call you back in two hours. It was a much more responsible approach. But but but I applied less than an hour to go. We drove up, interviewed, and got accepted. Actually, funny story, we got finally, we're able to get on TechCrunch the day of our YC interview, so I'm sure that that didn't hurt at all.

This is what that looked like. This doesn't isn't actually what a normal spike looks like. You'll see a normal press spike later. But in this particular case, we only had two servers and we were really worried about our servers burning down and AWS didn't exist back then. So we we basically decided to allow you to sign up and then say, hey, you're on the wait list.

We'll contact you once you're able to access your account, which is why it's spread over a few days. But, the first tech crunching, now this is much more normal of what it looks like after a press spike. You see it kinda goes down pretty low. It's kinda hovering around the same level. If you're observant, you'll notice here, one day we had zero users.

That presumably means that we were the whole site was down, which is great. But but in January 2007, '11 months in, we dropped out of school, packed up all of our servers in my car. I drove cross country to San Francisco. Would not recommend driving 80 in January. Got stuck in Wyoming for three days. But finally made it out here and this is eleven months in.

So eleven months after writing the first line of code, working out full time in San Francisco as part of the YC program. Here's what that looked like. It's still shocking to me that at one point this TV was current technology because it just looks so old now. But but here we are. We we rented a one bedroom apartment sorry, two bedroom apartment in the Y Scraper.

We pushed three desks together, and we pretty much just worked all the time. We worked twenty four seven. Our only rule is we'd take Saturdays off. But other than that, we'd work until we were tired. We'd sleep until we weren't. We'd work until we were tired. We'd sleep until we weren't, and just kinda repeated that process. Here is a second TechCrunch press spike that we got in January.

This one's much more normal. This is exactly what you should expect if you get on TechCrunch or any press. It goes straight up and it's really exciting that day and then it goes straight back down the next day. And but at least settles a little bit higher. In April 2007, this was fourteen months in. You notice we had a couple other press mentions.

What you'll notice here, these are going in the wrong direction. Know, the number of new users per day is actually declining, declining, declining. Both of these are heading in the wrong direction. It means we didn't have product market fit yet. We're fourteen months in. It's over a year and we still don't have product market fit.

This was kind of an interesting moment in our history because we found ourselves with less than a hundred dollars in our bank account. And YC Demo Day was coming up soon and we were, you know, we kinda had some excitement and thought, you know, talking to investors, maybe we'll be able to raise money. But we certainly weren't sure of that.

We had just gone to Costco, so we had lots of food for for for a couple weeks. But rent was coming up. As everyone knows, rent in San Francisco isn't cheap. So about a week after this, I came to this very room, pitched a whole bunch of investors at demo day, and we were successful in raising a 650 k at the time that was called a series a. Today, would probably be called a pre seed.

A round of funding, fourteen months in, this is what a price round series a paperwork looks like. Just to give you a perspective too on on a little bit how crazy things have gotten out here, we raised 650 k on a $2,000,000 pre money valuation, so 2. 65 post. That was considered above average, slightly above average.

We were all very jealous of Dropbox who had raised it a $5,000,000 post money valuation. And and today, I think that number would probably be 15, maybe 20. So it just gives you a little bit of perspective on you can still be very successful even if those valuation numbers today might seem low or you might be angling for a higher one. But but really puts it all in perspective. This is February.

So we got featured in Newsweek magazine, which I don't even think is in print anymore. But you can see here, the spike goes up, it comes back down. It settles at a higher level, which is great. But look, it's going in the wrong direction again. Right? So this is now fifteen months in, still no product market fit. In February, here's eighteen months in, we got featured in Time Magazine this time.

And again, it goes up but now it's coming back down. Now it's settling at a higher level which is good but again, this is eighteen months in. We're eighteen months into the journey and we still have no product market fit.

So just to give you an idea of how long it can take before having something even as basic as just having users that enjoy using your product and are coming back, eighteen months later, we still didn't have it. Now now to skip through a little bit of of the rest of the story here, here is October 2007. So now twenty months in, you kinda see we had this moment and then boom, it turns around.

It turns around and it starts picking up. And now all of a sudden, you can see every single day, we're getting almost a thousand people coming to our front door, which is more than we were getting featured in Newsweek magazine or or on TechCrunch. First real traction that we got, fast forward again, February 2010, '4 years in, and now you can see we're off to the races.

So I wanted to give you a little bit of snapshot of what it looked like for us to get product market fit in the early days before diving into some of the basics. So so let's start with a definition on what is product market fit. So you've probably all heard Y Combinator's mantra which is there we go. Make something people want.

I actually, if I was to modify this, would say make something a lot of people want because that incorporates a little bit about the market. But we'll talk about that. So first, we'll go over the stages of a company. So obviously, you start off with I have an idea And everything is really exciting and you're telling all your friends about the idea. This is the very birth of a company.

Let's go through some of the phases. So this is roughly all of the phases of a company. It starts with idea, you get to prototype phase, you then get to launch, traction, monetization, and growth. I put monetization after traction because oftentimes that's the way it goes. And actually getting going from launch and getting to traction is product market fit.

Monetization is actually a much easier problem than product market fit. This these are the this is sort of the initial product market fit search. Initial product market fit search is between idea and traction. So getting from idea to traction is probably the hardest thing and the thing that kills the most companies. Alright. Here we go.

One thing not to forget is that when you're in this phase two, you're still refining product market fit. A lot of companies forget that. They they get so focused on scaling and so focused on, you know, continuing to grow the business and they completely forget that you're still refining and still building product market fit at this stage. So really important not to forget this. Alright.

So what are the hardest things at a start up? And I'm convinced that there's basically only two hard things. Number one is finding product market fit. It's really really really hard. Most companies will not be able to find product market fit. It's incredibly challenging. Number two is hiring and building a world class team. That is also incredibly challenging.

It's very unintuitive and it's very, very difficult to sort of grow through that rapid growth phase and to and to emerge on the other side with sort of an enduring long lasting company and culture. Making money, I put as a very distant third. It is usually a lot harder to build a product that a lot of people really, really want than it is to figure out how to make money from that product.

So I would say that's usually a distant third. You could have lots of ideas on how to make money. I would say definitely try to make money, experiment, learn, but it's a lot easier to figure out how to make money if you've already got people hooked.

And then the fourth one, and we won't cover this too much, but but to scale to a to a really big, long enduring company, you need to build an organization that scalably and repeatedly launches great products. And that's really, really hard because it's not just gonna be about the founders anymore. It's about the organization doing so scalably and repeatably.

One one other sidebar is that the best companies will create a market. So if you look at sort of what Weebly's done, if you look at what Airbnb's done, if you look at what Dropbox has done, all all companies have created their own market. I say this because by definition here, market research is not gonna help. Market research is research on existing markets. Right?

And you're gonna create a new market. So how do you do that? What does that look like? So first of all, you need to find a hidden need. So there is a need out in the market that a lot of companies or a lot of people don't realize exists. And if people realize they existed, if it was obvious, then everyone would be doing it.

And so so so the hardest part is finding this hidden need and everyone is gonna tell you that the idea is dumb. Everyone's gonna tell you it's stupid. I remember in in the February after writing that first line of code, I went and pitched Weebly at the New York Tech Meetup, and it was a thousand people.

It was we were kinda alpha stage at that point, and it was in front of a thousand people and I gave a demo, a five minute demo, and then Scott, the founder of meetup. com, came on stage and just said he thought it was the stupidest idea that he'd ever heard and that no one needed to make websites and that people who need to make websites already could or people just had to learn to code.

And a friend of a thousand people told us that it was we had the stupidest fucking idea he'd ever heard. So the point I'm making is if it's obvious, then everyone will be doing it. So you're kind of finding a new reason.

Now, the hidden need in this particular case was that there was a lot of people who needed to make a website themselves and that was really hard because a lot of the tools at the time were geared towards people who hand coding the websites basically, like FrontPage and Dreamweaver. We were able to realize that people wanted to do that and build a service that enabled people to do that.

But figure out what are you a substitute for? What need are you serving better? What job are people hiring you to do? If you know the jobs to be done book and framework, that's really helpful to think about what are people trying to do? People aren't trying to make a website, people are trying to launch and grow their business. Right?

So understanding what's the job people are trying to do and then what substitutes are there for that job. And so when you think from that mindset, you might think, well, there's a website, you could also create a Facebook page, you could so there's lots of different substitutes for that job. I think a really important one is understanding where are you getting pulled?

Where are your customers pulling you at? You shouldn't be pushing your customers towards a solution. When you when when when things are working, your customers are beating a path to your front door and they're pulling you and saying, no, can you need to do this? And you're saying, yeah, but that's not what our product does. They say, well, I'm gonna kinda hack it to do that anyway.

When you find people hacking your product to do something it wasn't intended to do, pay attention to that and double down on that. And then often what you initially create will seem to fit into an existing market but with less functionality. Right? So it's the same thing with the iPhone. It was the same thing with Weebly.

Oftentimes, it doesn't have three g, it doesn't have apps, it doesn't have any of these things initially. But what it does do is it enables a whole new market, a whole set of new entrants to come and use your product. And so the success of the iPhone wasn't that it successfully competed against smartphones. It sure looked like a smartphone.

But it wasn't competing against any smartphones that were out there because what happened is there was maybe at that point in time, I was a heavy palm trio user, there was maybe a couple million smartphone users in The United States. What the iPhone did is it made everyone a smartphone user.

And so there was all of sudden a whole bunch of new entrants and then over time, it also cannibalized the existing smartphone market. So a lot of times people may sort of mistake you for incumbents when you're creating an entirely new market. So the next is on building a remarkable product. So what does this process look like?

And I'll try to break it down into very literal steps about exactly what you should be doing. So everyone knows this. Right? Step one, have a great idea. Step two, talks to customers. Step three, something happens there. And step four, profit. Right?

Everyone knows this. But what is step three? Right? Because that's where everyone's plotting around in the desert, like trying to figure out what the hell to do and nothing's working. So let's talk about step three. So step three is literally this list of things. So you talk to customers and develop a market thesis. Try to understand exactly what their pain point is.

What's that job they're trying to get done and how can you help them get it done faster or better? This is really important. Listen to their problems, not their solutions. So customers will tell you the pain that they're facing, listen to that. When they talk about the solutions, their proposed solutions, you could just completely ignore that because they generally aren't that great.

Number three, go through a rapid prototyping and user testing phase. Number four, you build a solution to their problems. Number five, test the solution with them. Number six, did it work? Go to one, repeat. And then number seven, by the time you've you've sort of looped on points one to six, you probably looped about 27 times and that has some interesting implications.

But no one ever gets it right on the first shot. No one gets it right on the first shot. So there's some implications there. So so let's dig in on a few of them. Listen to their problem, not their solutions. I like what that Michael touched on this earlier too about the real Steve Jobs and fake Steve Jobs.

There's this meme out there that Steve Jobs just didn't talk to customers and would just like produce the magical product that the world needed like in one shot, just straight from his imagination. That's not how it worked. Here here's a quote. Some people say give customers what they want. That's not my approach.

I think Henry Ford once said if I'd asked customers they wanted, they would have told me a faster horse. People don't know what they want until you show it to them, that's why I never rely on market research. That is all a % true. Don't listen to people's proposed solutions. Market research is probably not gonna show you the way. Right? But what he didn't say is that he never talks to customers.

He didn't say that he never listens to their problems. He didn't say that he never iterates because those are all things that Apple does a whole lot. So it's absolutely critical. Talk to customers, understand their pain. No solution was ever delivered perfectly in a vacuum. Number three, rapid prototyping user testing. So I think this is a really important point.

Building a fully we we made this mistake a whole lot early on. Building a fully functional product just to figure out if it's gonna work or not is a really, really expensive way to test the hypothesis. So you could get caught up in this loop of like, build the product, launch it, doesn't work. Scrap. Repeat. Build the product, launch it, doesn't work.

And especially like Michael was saying, if you're always searching for that home run and it takes you three months to build that product, that is a really long time to keep iterating. The best thing you can do, however you end up doing it, is focus on getting to a functional prototype as quickly as possible.

So that might be there's a whole bunch of tools now that allow you to take mock ups and make them clickable and make them feel a lot like an app. You can do it by just writing throwaway code and just getting something really, really quickly out there. There's a whole lot of ways to write to write functional prototypes, but but get in front of users. Don't worry yet about scaling.

I know we were really obsessed about writing code that was gonna scale because the underlying assumption there is that as soon as we launch it, millions of people are gonna beat the path to our front door. Doesn't happen, not gonna happen, so don't worry about scaling until you need to. I would say initially, don't worry about monetization either.

You wanna focus on making sure that the product experience is right. Don't shy away from monetizing your products. Don't shy away from charging for them. But initially, you need to make sure that your product is working for people. And then expect that however many iterations you think it will take, expect it'll take about 10 times that many iterations. So what are the implications of that?

And these are really important. Number one, keep your burn low. Because if you only have enough cash in the bank for two to three iterations and it's gonna take you twenty to thirty, then that's not gonna work. And number two, build a team that can do this really quickly. So this is I think one of the primary reasons why outsourcing the coding in the early days generally doesn't work.

It's because when you outsource a project, that's one shot. Well, if it's gonna take you 20 to 30 shots, not gonna work. You you need to build a team that can very very quickly iterate, rinse and repeat. Okay. This is another important point. Test a solution with customers.

So here are your here are your there there's some helpful tools here, but the most important rules are, number one, make sure you're talking to a target customer. So it's not helpful to just talk to anyone. Make sure it's the one you're targeting, but make sure that you are super flexible on changing your view on who those target customers are.

So when you talk to someone and it seems like, hey, this isn't my target customer, but then all of a sudden there's a whole bunch of them showing up and they're hacking and doing really interesting things with your product, you should pay attention to that and potentially change who your target customer is. Number two, don't overthink it. I think this is a problem a lot of smart people can have.

You obviously wanna rely on data, you wanna rely on market research, you get really really into the weeds and the strategy and you super overthink everything, don't overthink it. Anecdotal's okay. Just getting in there and building and launching something and trying it out and iterating is the most important thing you can do.

Doing all of your homework, all of your research, you know, looking at the market, looking at the strategy. It's gonna be the perfect strategy but no one's gonna use your product. So don't don't overthink it. Here are basically three tools. I think these are probably the only three that you need. Number one, customer interviews. You probably need about five to 10 of these.

So basically what this is is it's talking to a customer probably for about an hour, maybe a little bit longer whether it's on the phone or going into their place of business or or going to where they are and just understanding everything about what motivates them, what their problems are, what their pain is and just getting that qualitative view of like what they're experiencing.

Number two, UX testing sessions. You only need about three to five of these. And and we'll go over how to run a good UX testing session, think, the next slide. Number three, metrics. So metrics are obviously really important. Tracking the right metrics is really important. The one thing I'll say is you'll never have as large of a sample size as you want.

Even at WeeblyScale today, we still sometimes have difficulty with getting statistical significance for some of our tests. Be very careful about telling too many stories with your metrics that maybe aren't supported by the statistical significance.

So you'll oftentimes find this, there'll be blogs writing about an AB test and how you change the color from red to blue and it increased conversions by 27%. And it's like, oh, yeah, how many people ran oh, yeah, there's 17 people that ran through your test. Like, I'm not sure that I would pay attention to that. Okay. UX testing sessions. I think these are the most important thing that you can do.

It's really really simple but but but it can be really painful. Number one, get someone to use your proxy service in front of you in person. Whether that's on your phone, whether that's sitting in front of a laptop or desktop, get them to use it. Number two, encourage them to give open and honest feedback.

They will not want to give you open and honest feedback because it feels awkward telling someone that their baby is ugly. But but you have to try your best to encourage open and honest feedback. Number three, ask them to perform a task. You are not allowed to touch the phone or keyboard. You are not allowed to do anything once you tell them to perform the task.

Number four, and this is most difficult, do not say anything. It's really really really hard. You will go through extreme agony as they struggle to figure out how the hell to do something really basic like sign up for your app and you'll go through all this pain and it'll probably take them two to three minutes and you'll get this visceral gut feeling.

You you are not allowed to touch or tell them to do anything until they successfully complete the task even when they ask for your help. It's really, really hard. You only need three to five testing sessions. I think you really only need three to be able to tell the most critical and important UX bugs, if you will, that you have. I'll tell you one story on this.

We were about to launch a homepage once and we wanted to get those sign up form fields down to as few as possible to reduce the friction of signing up to Weebly. And so we figured, well, you don't really need confirm password, so so we got rid of that one. And in fact, you don't really need to confirm email which used to be a thing. And so we figured, well, we could just ask for email and password.

That'll be enough. And in the off case someone mistypes their password, they just resets their email. And in the chances someone mistypes both their email and their password, then I guess they're gonna have to create a new account. But that's not that big of a deal. So we we so we put the sign up form and it said sign up here in probably like hundred point font.

And then it had two fields, it said email address, password. And we're about to launch it, but we had the practice of doing this before we launched anything. And so I got a couple people down, they were just friends, and I sat in front of the laptop and said sign up. And and and these were tech people. And and about 45 later, turns out I I don't I don't know how to sign up.

How how do you not know how to sign up? It says sign up here in a hundred point font. Like what the hell is going on? Another side point, people don't read. So so and I said, why don't you know how to sign up? It's right here. They said, oh, that makes so much sense. Well, I just didn't look at that because I assumed email password as a login form obviously.

So it wasn't a sign up form, was a login form. So we added a gratuitous field that just says your name so that we could have three fields and all of sudden people saw it as a sign up form, which is incredible. This is the kind of thing we would have never discovered if we hadn't done UX testing. So I would recommend doing it all the time for everything you launch. You don't need that many sessions.

Okay. Here's another question that comes up. When should we launch? There's this whole minimum viable product which I think is a lot of the thinking is is is good, it's new since we launched. But I don't really like the word viable because it's kind of insinuating that you're gonna put like the like just the least crappy thing you can out there. I much prefer the word remarkable.

So minimum remarkable product. The product that is the the least you can build to be remarkable. Alright. So this is a quote from Paul Bohite. It says launch when your product is better than what's out there.

I think this is really important because it it it basically incorporates this idea that that you should build something that's better than anything else out there and don't launch until you have that. But as soon as you have it, then go ahead and launch. So I think that's the right time to launch. Prioritizing. Okay. I think this is another important point to make is how do you prioritize?

Because in the early days, it seems like there's an infinite amount of things to build and you don't have enough time to build any of them. And and so how do you figure out what the hell to build next? I think there's two important points on prioritizing. Number one, there's only one thing that matters. Think about that startup journey from idea to growth stage.

Focus only on the thing that gets you to that next stage. Don't focus on anything else. Don't go to conferences, don't like write blog posts, don't read the news. Now I'm telling you this because like I did all those things. It's impossible not to, but just don't If you can, don't do any of them. Don't do any of the things that aren't getting you to your next milestone.

In this particular case, next milestone being product market fit. Number two, I think is a really interesting point. I heard this from Astro Teller who ran Google X.

And most people prioritize, almost everyone prioritizes their list exactly the same way, which is effectively some kind of spreadsheet of all the tasks you can do and then the difficulty of each and then the expected payoff of each, how impactful. Right? And so and and then you basically sort by cost times benefit.

But instead, I think when you're trying to make continuous improvement, that's actually a pretty good approach. When you're trying to make discontinuous improvement, optimize for learning. So basically ask yourself, what is my biggest unknown right now? What's the number one thing that I do not know, you know, about my business that I need to learn?

Optimize to learn that thing because when you do that, it might not seem like the biggest thing. It might be a low effort task. It might seem like a low priority task. But when you optimize to learn the most, what do you do? You rewrite your whole priority list. Because when you learn that thing, that actually completely you throw out all your old priorities and have a new list of new ones. Okay.

How do I know when I've achieved product market fit? This is another common question. So I think there's basically three key metrics you should be tracking. Number one, returning usage. Number two, NPS. And number three, paying customer renewal rates.

So returning usage is basically just look at people who sign up or come to your site or your app and look at the number of people who come back within a day, within three days, within seven days, within thirty days. Right? If you track that metric more than anything else, that is the indicator that things are working.

In the early stages, I remember handing out Weebly logins to all my friends and family and none of them came back. And those are the people who like you the most. And those are the people who would really want you to be successful and if they're not coming back, then no one's gonna come back. And so I think number one, tracking return usage is really important. Number two, track NPS.

There's all kinds of tools to do this now. Your NPS, some people say 40, I think about 50. If it's above 50, then you'd probably achieve product market fit. NPS, if you ever answered that question, would you recommend this product or service to a friend? That's NPS. It's one question. You rank from zero to 10. Basically, percentage of people who answer nine or 10, those are promoters.

The percentage of people who answer zero to six, those are detractors. And people who answer seven or eight are thrown out. So in the early days, Weebly had an NPS of 80%. That was basically 88% of people answered nine or 10. Eight percent of people answered zero to six. And if my math is right, 12% of people answered seven or eight. So you basically take that 88% minus 8% equals 80.

If it's above 50, you're doing pretty well. The way this metric is built, it can get negative and that's probably where it will start. And then number three, paying customer renewal rates. So when you have paying customers, look at their renewal rates. A quick sidebar, I don't like the churn metric for looking at this. A lot of people use that because it's easier to calculate.

But basically, churn is not cohort based, renewal is cohort based. So churn is just looking at number of subscribers lost divided by total active subscribers in any given period. I don't like that because if your denominator is changing, like let's say you're growing really really quickly, your denominator is changing faster than your numerator. The numerator is based on last year's denominator.

And so basically, it's it's it it could be deceptive as to what your actual churn is, but your renewal rates are great. Cause that's looking for the number the percentage of people who are eligible to renew and what percentage of those people actually renewed and that's cohort pay. So I like renewal rates a lot better. Alright. Next, metrics that aren't included.

So number one metric that is not included is sign ups. This is something that was not very well understood when we got started. I would not pay that much attention to sign ups. I would pay a lot of attention to active users. If you have good returning usage, then sign ups translates to active users pretty well.

If you have bad returning usage, then sign ups basically like completely drops off and you have very little active users. In fact, that number may even be shrinking even when your sign ups are growing if people aren't returning. Number two, conversion rate. If if you're thinking of building a SaaS business, conversion rates, they all start low, they build over time.

I wouldn't pay a lot of attention to conversion rate in the beginning. I'd pay attention to some of the other metrics. I I think this is the last point, just how does it feel when you get product market fit? You'll know when you achieved it when your customers are beating a path to your door. When you don't have it, everything feels hard.

It feels like you're pushing this huge rock up a mountain, you're pushing your customers towards a solution. They're too nice to tell you no, but they're not really coming back, they're not really using it. When you have it, the whole world is beating a path to your door. Everyone wants to use it. The press is writing about it.

Everything feels easy and every decision you make feels like you're a genius because they all go well. You know, spoiler alert, it's somewhere in between. It turns out that, you know, as you're scaling your business over time, you'll discover you're maybe a little less smart than you thought you were. But but but that comes later. But I think this is what it feels like.

So if you're not feeling that, you know, sort of customers pulling you in a direction, world beating a path to your door, then you probably don't have it yet. Alright. Now, a couple more points beyond product market fit. This is a little bit more theoretical.

I think the most important is just the very sort of tactical, like how do you go and build a product, just talk to customers, listen to their problems, not their solutions, iterate a ton, and then keep launching until you get something out there, focus on a couple key metrics. But a couple points I wanna make.

Number one, there's there's fundamentally three things that a startup needs to do in order to be successful and this is a little bit past just product market fit. Number one, product needs to be meaningfully better than the alternatives. I think this is sort of described in the Paul Buhayk quote of launch when what you have is better than anything else out there.

Number two, you'll need to learn how to acquire customers in a differentiated way that scales. And number three, you'll need to invent your business model without killing your traction. This gets into a little bit more than product market fit in an expanded version here. But basically product market channel model fit.

And what what this goes to show is like you can build a product that works really well for a market, but the model's busted. Right? Your your your your the model, the way that you charge people, you know, doesn't work. Maybe you're not charging enough, maybe you're charging too much. That has a lot of interplay with your channel and this is how you acquire customers, right?

So if your model, if it for example, if you're building a solution and you're trying to charge $75 a month for it, that's probably gonna be a pretty tough spot to businesses because you're gonna be in the middle. You're not gonna be able to afford a sales force, right? You're not gonna be able to afford actual people selling your product to the customers directly.

But it's too much money that people are gonna want to just whip out their credit card and start paying that, right? And so that's why oftentimes, you know, between the model and the channel, there needs to be a fit there as well. Because if you're gonna if you're gonna have a sales force, you're probably gonna need to charge people at least 2 to $300 a month to be able to afford the Salesforce.

And if you aren't gonna have a Salesforce, then you should probably charge $25 a month or less. This all, of course, plays with the product and market fit, which is which is how this all works together. So there there's a essay here which is HubSpot Growth Framework, which I'd highly recommend reading for a little bit more on this. Another sidebar is on scaling the team.

So I think this is a really important point to make. Don't scale the team until you have product market fit. So I would not scale past about 20 people. So around 20 people, it's usually between about twenty three and twenty five, is when everything breaks in the startup. Because you can no longer be just just, you know, completely flat.

If you look at any of the essays, you know, if you look at, know, back in the day, 37 had this essay of like how being a perfectly flat company is amazing and no one ever needs to hire managers. It's like, I could predict to within one or two employees exactly the size you are and it's about 23 to 25 and it turns out that was true.

Because about 23 to 25, it feels amazing, it's completely flat, just another couple people and everything breaks. What you need to do is you need to start implementing your first layers of management. And it turns out that that structure is not very good for finding product market fit. It's not very optimal for that. So keep your team small.

I would say it's okay to micromanage a little bit at this stage. You should know everything that's going on. You should know everything important there is to know about your customers, your product, your market, your channels. You should know all of that. What does that mean? That helps you make really great decisions, right? Because you have all this information. It's actually a huge advantage.

Once a company scales up, then all this knowledge is distributed across people and it's really difficult to get all that knowledge to make a really good decision in one spot when it's scattered across a bunch of different people and takes a lot of different opinions to get something done. So don't delegate anything important yet.

However, once you've achieved product market fit, and I think this is a mistake that that we made, scale aggressively once you've achieved product market fit. So at this point, presumably, you've either found or created a new market, but it's likely you're not the only one. You may not have heard of your competitors yet, but there's probably other people out there doing the same thing.

You are in a race to capture this new market and advantages accrue to the number one player. They always do. Even if there's not network effects in your business, just having more people can build products faster that generates more revenue, that attracts more financing, that allows you to hire more people, that generates more revenue.

So there's all these kind of flywheels and cycles and advantages that accrue to the number one company. Be that company. Build a team aggressively but thoughtfully. I think that you should probably never more than double the size of your company in any given year.

So I don't think I know of an example of hyper growth that works out, of companies that go from 20, you know, 20 employees to 300 in a year, and that works out.

Because what what you end up doing is you build a foundation on on sand based on really shaky soil, and it all eventually, it's all great while you're scaling, and eventually, the skyscraper comes crashing down, and that always seems to happen. You will need to completely change the way that you work, including a lot more delegating at this point and no more micromanagement after you do that.

So there's kind of this inflection point in scaling a company I think it's really important to think about because I would not scale a company past about 20 people before you have product market fit. As soon as you found it, go and scale aggressively as you can.

And then lastly, I'll talk a little bit about building a brand because I don't think it's worth spending too much time thinking about, but I think it's worth spending some time thinking about when you're in the early stages. So great brands are built around a fundamental insight, a consumer insight that some truth that's just not really acknowledged out there.

And ideally, is the same one that your product is built on. So it's really really powerful if you can identify that insight early on, know what you stand for and build that into all of your messaging, build that through into your product and that becomes the foundation of your brand. So let me give you one example.

I talked to the person who built Virgin America's brand and so so here was their story. So when they got started, were they were doing a startup airline. There are lots of economies of scale in airlines. And so they did they they went out and started talking to customers and they realized that there's only four reasons why people select one airline over another. The reasons were schedule, price.

So again, if it was $3 cheaper, I'll select that airline. It was destination, so if you wanna fly to SFO or Oakland, and it was frequent flyer programs. And they looked at each one of those and said, we're not gonna win. We can't win. It's impossible to win on any of these. So they said, okay, well, what's our market thesis? Like, what are we gonna do differently?

And then they went out there and talked to lots of people and they said, you know what? The experience of flying sucks. The experience of flying really, really sucks. So why don't we create an airline where it's not gonna be a super premium airline, but it might cost $15 more for that ticket, but it's gonna be an amazing flying experience.

That was their brand, that was their product and their brand. They built it in right from the very beginning and everything that they did revolved around that flying experience. So that's why you make a decision to invest in the super cool lighting that doesn't make any sense financially. Right? But that is exactly about the flying experience.

That's why you're gonna go and pay your staff more and they're gonna have a really great attitude as they're serving the flyers. That's why for every single PR event that they ever did, they did it on an airplane because they wanted to highlight that flying experience. And they created a new reason for people to buy their tickets and they were very successful at doing that.

So I think it's one thing to understand is I I wouldn't spend too much time overthinking this but to the extent that you can understand what is that insight, it should be infused in both your product and that becomes the basis for your brand over time. So that is it. I think I'll take a pause there. And that's it. So any questions? Yeah.

So the question is, it took eighteen months to find product market fit and what motivated us. And and and I like to say that it was just that we were young and stupid, which is super helpful. But I think I my my theory on entrepreneurs is that a lot of people think that entrepreneurs are risk takers. I don't actually think most entrepreneurs I know are heavy risk takers.

I think they're calculated risk takers. I think that entrepreneurs are really two primary qualities. Number one is they're optimists, so they don't see risks where other people see risks. And number two is they're determined, they just don't give So I think if, you know, generally speaking, those are the two things. Your company only fails when you give up. Right?

And while you're still working on it, by definition, it's still going. And so I think I think having that determination I I wouldn't I wouldn't blindly plot on when all of the evidence shows that that this is not gonna work out.

But but but I think just continue to be determined and knowing, just having the confidence and knowing like this is something people need and just continue to work on it is is key. Yeah. So the question is like common advice is target niche audience or verticalize, right? Which is which is another way to say that.

I think, you know, you're right, we've always been an anti pattern, you know, kinda kinda kinda runs counter to that pattern. I think, I'm not a % sure why, but I think it's because in our particular case, the verticals were not deep enough to be able to support the pretty heavy investment that you need to make in the product.

And so basically, every single person required actually a ton of functionality. It was, we need blogging, we need e commerce, we need, you know, forms, we need, you know, like a full CMS, we need all these things and we need it to be best class, you know, world class. And every single vertical wanted that and no vertical was deep enough to fully support that on their own.

So the the pattern of what happened to Weebly and just, you know, website builders or e commerce platforms in general is we all started off very horizontal and built a platform. And then over time, once all that functionality was built out, then we started to customize the verticals. So I think that that's what worked in our case. But building to a specific vertical is generally good advice.

Thank you for all you're sharing with us. Looking back on the notes, you mentioned that at some point you have to create a market. When you figured out that hidden need, what changed and what were you telling people to either ask them questions or sell them on you having this new secret hidden need in the market that none of them knew they needed?

Yeah. So the question is when you're creating a market, what changed to tell to telling people like you have this new thing that they didn't know they needed?

I think I think the experience is is likely to be similar for everyone, which is which is basically the first chunk, so I'd say the first three to four years of Weebly's history, we were mostly just trying like, I remember telling reporters like, you just they're like, why do we need to write a story? And I was like, you need to write a story because no one realizes this is possible. Right?

No one is so so the first three to four years were us just trying to convince people like, no, you really can build a website like this is possible because everyone, I mean, everyone assumed, unless they knew how to code, everyone assumed that is beyond my capabilities, that is beyond my abilities.

So we spent four years probably just trying to tell people and then eventually, little by little, people try it, people try it, and then that's that's that market's created, it's that kind of boom moment when all a sudden people realize that this is possible. You know, I think another probably great example would be either Uber or Airbnb. Right?

Like Airbnb was something that I remember even early on, was like, I don't really wanna stay with other people. That sounds weird. Like, I don't wanna get in someone else's car. Like, that's shady. But then all of sudden, like, you know, the word just kinda gets around. You try it once, enough people try it once, they really enjoy the experience. Word gets around.

Once it does, that's that that's that sort of that big bang moment, right, where the market's kinda created. And then at that point, your problems are completely different. At that point, you don't need to convince anyone anymore because people just think it's gonna be inevitable. But then your problems are more about scaling and, you know, continuing to find refine the product at that point.

Thank you.

Can you maybe talk about your key KPIs during that eighteen months of period?

What did you we're measuring to make sure that you are moving in the right direction? Yeah. So so the question is on the key KPIs during that eighteen month period. The sad answer is we were not monitoring them, we were not measuring them. That's probably why it took us eighteen months, it probably could have been a lot shorter.

I think we were looking at sign ups which was kind of the thing that most people were looking at at that point in time And it's a very poor metric. I think if if you were look at how our sign ups would convert to active users, that was very low. If you would look at how our sign ups were trending, sort of on a daily and weekly basis, that was trending down.

So by all accounts, we didn't have product market fit and we knew we didn't have product market fit. It wasn't like a big surprise. So so it's really just a matter of continuing to iterate, continuing to iterate until you finally get something that that clicks. Can you talk to us a little bit about your pricing and the journey that you went through with pricing in the beginning? Sure.

So so the question is on pricing and what's the journey we went through. I think people are a lot more rational about pricing today than when we got started because in in 02/2007 and 02/2008, the prevailing thinking in Silicon Valley was that you shouldn't actively not charge money. You should actively be not making money. That was the prevailing thinking. It sounds really, really crazy now.

But at the time, the logic went that Twitter was the example that if you charged money, then you would have revenues and once you had revenues, they they wouldn't be that big and then you'd just be valued on a multiple of your revenues. So way better to sell the dream and not show any revenues than to make money and then have your valuation come down. So that's what people thought at the time.

And we we started off by not charging any money, so it was just completely free from basically when we launched in 02/2006 through the February. We I'm I'm not even kidding. We had people who would just unsolicited just mail us a check for a hundred bucks because they were like, you're gonna run out of money, like you need I'm just gonna give you money. And like and and we're like, thanks.

But, like, it was a completely free product. There's no way to give us money unless you mail us a check. And and then we knew we were gonna run out of money from the round that we raised in around February. In sorry, September 2008. In February, we decided to try to make money because we figured making money was much cooler than raising another round.

So we worked for six months from January to June on launching Weebly Pro, which was the first version. It was $4 a month and it was the first version that you could pay us any money for. We had all of our friends over in our apartment the night before we launched it and we all took bets on clearly how many millions of dollars we were gonna be making the next day.

Like, it was like, as soon as you press that button, it was just gonna come flowing in. And and then we launched it the next day, and then after a week, we looked at the sales, and it turns out that we made 10 times less than the lowest bet. So it was like, okay, I guess it's not gonna work out quite that well that fast.

But then we, you know, we kept iterating, we kept growing from June 2008 to December. We almost ran out of money again, but but had the option of cutting the founder's salaries, and so we're gonna we're gonna be cash positive. We basically became cash flow positive in January 2009 and more or less were through the rest of the history of the company.

First of all, thanks a lot for doing this. I'm a user of Weebly ever since I don't know. I don't even remember now. So I know the old interface. I have a new interface. So thanks for building it. In my personal experience and my experiences of working with website for the technology before, I've seen that users actually use it for one or two weeks, three weeks tops.

They're gonna take problems with a click off. So in that case, how did you actually calculate active usage? Because even if it's a real user, real customer, they just flake off and keep using it. Yeah. So so so the question is,.

it's awesome that you're a Weebly user. Sort of how do you calculate active users when people flake off? I think you can still calculate the same way and I think it's still a valuable metric.

So there there there there is a question with talking to inside baseball with website builders of are they successfully using your product even if they're not coming back every single day and maybe they come back once every six months. I still think it's useful to look at the metric because because otherwise you're just flying blind. Yeah.

So so the question is around the the just the the word discontinuous improvement and like what does that mean? And and a lot of the writings about continuous improvement. I think discontinuous improvement is is effectively when you're making a big leap. Not and and sometimes, small incremental improvements don't get you to that big leap. Right?

And so I think, you know, imagine yourself starting with the palm trio, right, and you're trying to make continuous improvement, right? Like, what would you do?

Like, you'd improve the OS a little bit, maybe you'd improve, you know, the way the apps can exist a little bit, maybe you would take that keyboard and just like make the, you know, clicking a little bit better or the typing a little bit better, whatever it is. But I think, by definition, if you're gonna create a new market, oftentimes it's discontinuous improvement.

What that means is taking a really big leap. And taking a really big leap doesn't often happen the same way as taking small steps. And so I think, you know, again, it's really about finding that hidden need, figuring out what people want, and building that solution, iterating really quickly on that front, but optimizing for learning.

And I think optimizing for learning is sort of the key here where you say, what's the biggest unknown that I have and how do I go about answering that question? Okay. Two more questions.

Yep. Hi. So how do you deal with a demographic split between purchasers and users? Like, we're a hardware company and our primary purchasers are probably going to be kind of Gen X. They want an analog version because they believe it's more reliable. And primary users of the product will be millennials, and they all want touch screens, which actually works better for us.

And so how do you deal with, you know, convincing people later on, hey, in the tech road map, we'd actually like to even have, you know, maybe your old equipment back and we'll just give you a new one?

Yeah. So so the so so the question is, hardware startup, your purchasers and your users are different demographics and and they want different things. Yeah. How do you make the transition smooth? I mean, think I I don't have that much information. I'm guessing education? What what Coffee. Okay.

Then I have no idea. But I but if you wanna come talk to me afterwards, we could dig into it a little bit more. Yeah.

Yeah. Hi. So.

one of your ways to draw a market fit, can you talk about how do you think about when to start, you know, the the whole fundraising process?

Yeah. Yeah. That's a great question. So on your way to product market fit, when do you start the whole fundraising process? I think so so I think the most helpful thing to me that I end up explaining to a lot of people is is look at that slide on the stages of a company. And most companies will not be able to raise money until they're at the early traction phase, just entering traction.

Now, things may be different for you. You may have some friends and family who may be able to kinda stake you early on. You may get into a program like Y Combinator. You you may be different. That's certainly possible. But most companies, like when you look at those large early rounds at a raise and this company raised $40,000,000 without launching a product and you're like, I can do that too.

You can't. That's what I thought. It turns out that in all those cases, there's some kind of history. It's, you know, the the founder or founders of that company have created massively successful products before or maybe they're huge, you know, coming in some some part of the industry or whatever it is.

I think if your expectation is that you can't raise around until you get to early traction, that's probably a realistic expectation. And then at that point, sort of what are the implications of that, right? So how the hell do you get to early traction without raising money, right? It's a chick it's sort of this chicken and egg problem. Everyone solves it differently, right?

Like everyone wound up solving it differently.

It's really really hard though, and I think the key, the way that a lot of people solve it is just, you know, effectively sweat equity, it's just getting a few really smart people together who can build what they need to build without anyone else, without outsourcing, without hiring anyone else, and keeping their burn really, really low, and basically lock themselves in a room and and continue to just build as quickly as they can.

until they get to that point. And it looks like you have a follow-up. Yeah. So I mean, you know, one side, we say that you have, you know, launched after you have something that is better than what is happening. It's basically means like a global product.

No. No. So so the question is launch launch when you have something that's better than what's out there, which which means a full blown product. No. I I think, you know, maybe this is something I could add in here. Don't don't look at your product in terms of like a feature grid, like a feature checklist.

If you think about it like that, you can never win because you're behind and you can never catch up. And especially if you're comparing to, like like like I like this phrase of like customers over competitors because if you're looking at what your competitors are doing, right, then you're inherently following. Because whatever they've just launched, they started building three months ago. Right?

And so by the time you build that and you launch that, then they're gonna be launching the new thing. And it could be, you know, I remember one of our competitors, I won't name them, but but they're from South Africa and they had raised $40,000,000 and we had raised 650 k and they things were not going that great for them and so they completely ripped off our interface.

And they just completely cloned it and launched it. And I was like, we were laughing our asses off because we were about to launch an update where at the time that sidebar with the elements was on top and we're about to put it on we're about to put it on the left. Right? We spent a lot of time building that and they launched like two weeks before we built it, right?

And so I think you have to be focused on your customers, not your competitors. And it's not about the feature grid because there's gonna be one particular feature or one aspect of your product. Maybe it's the easy use and the usability that opens it up to a new market. Maybe it's one feature that people are just killing for that's gonna that's gonna make up for the lack of the rest.

And so people are gonna look at that and say, well, it doesn't have x y z, which I do kinda want and those other products do, but this is the one thing that I need and they're gonna come and use your product for that. So it's not that your product has more features than anyone else, it's that your product does that one thing, that one job they're trying to do, it does that better than anyone else.

Thanks,.

guys.

Okay. That concludes today. Sorry that we ran a little late. It's, hard to constrain fantastic speakers from getting through the material and all the great questions you guys are asking. Next week, Sujal Doshi and Gustav Alstrommer from Mixpanel and Y Combinator, respectively, will continue on our dive into product, talking about measurement and growth, two very important things.

And we'll also be posting another video of a conversation this week that Adora is going to have with Ushma Garg, the founder of Gobble. And they, like the Bee Gees, are going to be talking about staying alive, if anyone gets that reference. Alright. Thanks, everyone.